Monday, 2 May 2011

Sorry, Portugal... Soini enters Flipmode

In yet another shocking twist, True Finns' leader Timo Soini retracted his earlier talks about the Portugal bailout being negotiable. His reply this morning to coalition forming headsman and probable future PM, National Coalition's Jyrki Katainen posing a question about Portugal bailouts indicated that the True Finns will refuse to partake in a coalition that is willing to bail out Portugal. Not only that, but they now cannot 'in good conscience' support the creation of a ESM, a permanent rescue fund, nor increasing Finland's share in the temporary bailout mechanism.

Flipmode... Flipmode is the greatest
Then at around 2pm Finnish time, Soini clarified his position and now says the matter is entirely in the hands of Jyrki Katainen, who has been tasked to form a majority coalition. He said he would be willing to negotiate, but that the True Finns would not accept having to vote in favor of bailouts or ESM creation. It is now 17:40 or there abouts, so who knows what might still happen! In any case, Jyrki Katainen will give his interpretation of this typically soini'esque situation tomorrow.

It looks the die has been cast, and either the National Coalition gives in to the anti-Euro party or the True Finns start off the next cabinet watching from the opposition side. Whatever happens, it does not bode well for the longevity of the next governing coalition. You cannot have a coalition that enjoys majority support in parliament with 39 True Finns reserving the right to vote against it. On the other hand it would be unprecedented if the greatest winner of the parliamentary election would be left outside the ruling cabinet, and it would almost certainly be seen by the general public as unjust. Jyrki Katainen is going to have a sleepless night over this one, I'm willing to bet.